Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a ability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
