A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
